Something is Wrong with Kenyan Political “Abductees”
I am not a huge fan of X’s (formerly Twitter) timeline recommendation algorithm. It often seems to prioritize lewd and questionable content. However, despite its shortcomings, it does provide me with a daily dose of political updates from boisterous online pundits. In particular, Gabriel Oguda did feature almost daily on my timeline pouring vitriol on the current regime.
Something unusual happened after the infamous June 25th demonstrations. Following Gabriel’s release from police custody, he mysteriously vanished from my feed. It wasn’t until about a month after the protests that I realized his absence. At first, I assumed he might have stopped or reduced his tweeting. But when I visited his page, I found him tweeting again — this time with a noticeably different tone. His posts were calmer, more neutral, and lacked the sharp humor and combative critiques that once defined his commentary.
This led me to suspect that Twitter’s timeline algorithm is designed to amplify negative news. Curious to investigate further, I downloaded the latest 1,000 tweets from Gabriel Oguda and conducted a sentiment analysis.
As expected, most of the tweets were either neutral or positive — quite different from the fiery posts seen before the demonstrations. But did Twitter only recommend the negative ones? I wish Twitter provided free access to tweets beyond the last 30 days to compare the sentiment before and after the protests. I bet the difference would be striking.
In the Cusp of Kasmuel
As if on cue, Kasmuel McOure was “abducted” by the police, and like Gabriel, he vanished from my timeline. But this case was different — he took a nearly week-long break from tweeting after the abduction. When he returned, his tone and demeanor had shifted as well.
He clashed with other online activists and eventually announced he was stepping back from the Gen Z protests. Despite this, he continued to comment on political events. Analyzing his latest 1,000 tweets shows since his “abduction” in late June, he has been on a positive trajectory of positivity in his tweets.
A Theory
It seems odd that the experience of “abduction” would not strengthen activists’ resolve but instead soften their stance. A friend on Twitter has a theory suggesting that Kenya’s intelligence agency was caught off guard by the Gen Z protests hence lacking any informants. He believes the abductions are a strategy to recruit “agents” for the state to gather information about the protests.
In summary, the activists would become double agents, softening their protest stance to quell the unrest while providing information to the state in case any offshoots arise. This theory might seem far-fetched, but with Kasmuel McOure announcing today that he has allied with former Prime Minister Raila Odinga and is offering his support, it begins to appear more plausible.
This is perhaps a reason why Africa lacks true change agents: those with the potential are often easily dissuaded or co-opted. You may notice that among the “abductees,” only Morara Kebaso faced a court case. If you enjoy conspiracy theories, you might conclude that he refused to become a “double agent,” and that’s why he ended up in legal trouble.
Whichever theory you believe in, we can all agree that something changed about the activists after the “abductions”.
