Its Generals, not Colonels who Lead Coups in Africa

Lt. Colonel Mamady Doumbouya — Image courtesy of Newsline

There is an ongoing debate across the internet about why colonels often lead coups, particularly in Africa. The recent power grab by Lieutenant Colonel Mamady Doumbouya in Guinea, where he deposed President Alpha Condé, has reignited this discussion. Notable examples include Colonel Salou Djibo of Niger, Colonel Assimi Goïta of Mali, and Colonel Muammar Gaddafi of Libya.

Interestingly, Gaddafi actually staged his coup while still a captain but later promoted himself to colonel to solidify his authority as Commander-in-Chief. Perhaps the most striking figure among them is Assimi Goïta, who managed to overthrow two presidents within a span of just nine months. Before delving into the role of colonels in military coups, it is crucial to first understand the structure and dynamics of the armed forces.

• General — A General holds the highest rank in the armed forces, akin to a CEO in a corporation. Their role involves making strategic decisions that shape the overall direction of the military. Generals oversee operations, approve or reject significant policies, and ensure that the armed forces function effectively at all levels. They are responsible for military planning, national defence strategies, and high-level command decisions that impact the entire army.
• Lieutenant General — A Lt. General is a three-star general who serves as the second-in-command to a full General. Their primary responsibility is overseeing field operations and coordinating combined arms actions, which involve integrating different military branches — such as infantry, artillery, and armoured units — for effective combat strategies. Lieutenant Generals play a crucial role in operational planning, ensuring that military campaigns and large-scale missions are executed efficiently.
• Major General — A Major General is a two-star general responsible for commanding an army division, typically comprising 10,000 to 20,000 troops. These divisions are capable of independent action, integrating multiple military capabilities such as infantry, artillery, air support, and logistics. Major Generals play a crucial role in operational leadership, ensuring that their division functions effectively in both combat and strategic missions. Their command bridges the gap between high-level military strategy and battlefield execution.
• Brigadier —A Brigadier (also known as a one-star general) commands a brigade, which consists of three to six battalions or approximately 3,200 to 5,500 soldiers. Their primary responsibilities include overseeing the strategic and tactical planning of brigade-level operations and ensuring effective execution in combat and support roles. Brigadiers act as a critical link between higher command (Major Generals) and frontline units, providing leadership, coordination, and operational oversight to ensure mission success.

This concludes the ranks of officers responsible for planning and executing field operations, collectively known as Generals. These high-ranking officers provide strategic leadership, oversee large-scale military operations, and ensure the on the battlefield. Their decisions shape the outcome of military campaigns and the overall effectiveness of the armed forces.

• Colonel — serves as the critical link between the General ranks and field command. They are responsible for leading combat units and often act as senior planning officers at the battalion level, overseeing 300 to 1,000 soldiers. Colonels play a key role in tactical execution, ensuring that strategic directives from higher-ranking officers are effectively implemented on the ground. This is the highest rank still directly involved in operational planning, marking the transition from frontline command to high-level military leadership.
• Lieutenant Colonel — serves as the second-in-command to a Colonel and may assume their responsibilities when necessary. In some cases, they command a squadron, typically consisting of around 300 soldiers. Their role involves assisting in operational planning, overseeing training, and ensuring the effective execution of missions at the battalion or squadron level. While they do not have the full authority of a Colonel, Lieutenant Colonels play a crucial leadership role in bridging strategic directives with on-the-ground execution.
• Major — typically commands a company of 80 to 250 soldiers, though the exact number varies by country. In addition to leading a company, a Major often serves in auxiliary roles, such as acting as a battalion staff officer, where they assist in planning, logistics, and coordination at the battalion level. Majors play a crucial role in tactical leadership, operational planning, and training, ensuring that company-level operations align with broader military objectives.
• Captain — an officer responsible for commanding a platoon, typically consisting of about 50 soldiers. Captains play a crucial role in tactical leadership, mission execution, and training at the platoon level. They ensure that orders from higher-ranking officers are effectively carried out while also making on-the-ground decisions in combat or operational scenarios. Additionally, Captains may serve as company second-in-command or take on specialized staff roles within a battalion.
• Lieutenant — the lowest commissioned officer rank, typically in charge of a squad of 4 to 10 soldiers. In Kenya, an officer must serve three to five years before attaining this rank.

This is the last rank for officers i.e. commanding power. Below this structure is enlisted men who actually do the fighting, the highest is warrant officer and the lowest is private or corporal. Enlisted men rarely lead coups due to the logistics required save for the case in Kenya where Senior Hezekiah Ochuka led the 1982 coup.

What Does the Data Say?

Systemic Peace, a research organization, compiled data on African coups between 1946 and 2010. According to their criteria, a successful coup requires coup leaders to seize and maintain central authority for at least one week. The “leaders” identified are those named in official reports, accusations, or subsequent trials.

From the dataset, the distribution of coup leaders reveals a significant trend:

• Generals (including ranks from Brigadier upwards) had the highest frequency of involvement in coups.
• If we combine the ranks of Colonel and Lieutenant Colonel, their involvement becomes comparable to that of Generals.

However, an intriguing theory proposed by Prof. Jonathan Powell suggests that:

• Generals typically orchestrate coups, but Colonels and lower-ranking officers execute them.
• When a coup fails, blame is often shifted onto junior officers, who are accused of acting independently — while the true masterminds at higher ranks remain shielded.

This dynamic highlights the hierarchical nature of military takeovers, where senior officers may manipulate events behind the scenes, ensuring they either reap the rewards of a successful coup or avoid accountability if it fails.